+ 미국, 유럽 금융계의 먹구름 - 돈은 떨어지고 끝났다

 

미국, 유럽 금융계의 먹구름 - 돈은 떨어지고 끝

 

유럽연합은 돈이 떨어졌고. 이야기는 끝났는데. 연준이나 유럽

중앙은행이나 돈을 찍을 수가 없으니 하루하루를 넘기기가 어렵다.

The EU is Out of Money. End of Story. And Neither

the Fed Nor the ECB Can "Print" To Save the Day

Submitted by Phoenix Capital Research on 07/03/2012 15:55 -0400

 

언론매체는 유럽연합 정상회담이 성공이라 말하며 문제는 풀렸다고 타전했는데 유럽에 돈이 떨어졌다는 사실은 그대로이다. 이 말은 돈이 완전히 떨어졌다는 말이다. 그렇다면 웃대가리들은 괜히 모여서 떠들며 회의했다는 것이지 아무런 열매가 없는 것이다.

이런 실정은 분석가들이 99%확률로 전한 것인데 그러나 이는 확실한 사실이다. 유럽연합을 좌지우지 하는 실력단체를 볼가..

ECB, IMF, 독일금융 Germany, 두개의 구제펀드 EFSF와 ESM인데 이들 모두가 실제로 돈이 없다는 말이다. 그런데 여기저기서 이멜이 와서는 "글쎄, 만일 Fed 나 ECB 에 돈이 없다면 빨리 돈을 찍어 돌려서 준비하면 만사가 해결되는 것인데 왜그래?" 하고 당연스런 주장을 한다. 허, 말귀를 못알아 듣는 사람한테 긴 이야기를 해야하는지, 원..

이것은 잘못된 것 자체를 넘어서는 일이다. 이런 발상은 2008년부터 시작된 거대한 위기 당시부터 연준이 저질러온 불법 개입에서 나온 것인데 이 당시 연준은 거의 삼분지이에 해당하는 개입을 했던 것이니 이런 오해가 날 만도 하다. 그러나 연준도 한계가 있다.

조금만 생각하자면 연준은 지난 1년간 적극적인 통화정책에서 물러나있다. 거기는 달러 인쇄를 하지않고있다. 그대신 연준이 한 일은 산율 곡선 yield curve 을 유지시키려 자금 분산책을 조정한 것뿐이다.

왜, 연준이 돈을 찍지않고 이런 포트폴리오를 했던가? 그 이유는 돈을 찍으면 재무부채권이 금융권에서 빠져나가기 때문이다. 그래서 우리는 유동성 문제가 아니라 통화 잔고 위기에 직면해있는 것이다. 그리고 재무부채권은 미국은행의 대차대조표 상의 가장 중요한 자산인 것이고..

연준이 은행에서 재무부채권을 구매하면 그들에게 현찰을 공급한다. 그래서 은행은 단기 자금수요를 맞춰가는 것이다. 그러나 연준이 수년간 한 일이 재무부채권을 은행에서 제거시켰기에 은행들은 가장 중요한자산을 잃었던 것이고 그것은 수조 달러의 가치를 지닌 자산을 잃었다는 의미이다.

똑같은 이야기가 유럽에서 더 큰 규모로 벌어지고 있다. 유럽은 미국보다 금융자산이 4배나 큰데 모두들 유럽중앙은행 ECB 이 경제난국을 해결해주리라 믿고 있다. 허지만 사실은 ECB도 지난 14주 동안이나 단 한장의 국가채권을 구매해주지 못했다.

왜 그런가? 그 이유는 연준이 돈을 찍지 못하는 것처럼 거기도 못찍는 것이다. 그래서 유럽도 통화 잔고위기에 직면해있다. 유럽국가들은 걸핏하면 IMF 를 들먹이지만 거기는 미국 중심 기관이다. 또 미국도 사정이 다급한데다가 미국대선이 있으니 유럽사정을 봐줄 처지가 못된다. 이러면 어떻게 되는가? 이제 유럽은 돈이 떨어져서 오도가도 못하는데다가 스페인 이태리, 프랑스, 그리스는 계좌인출 bank runs 사태까지 벌어지고 있는 중이니 얼마나 심각한가? 그래서 은행들은 자본을 늘리려 필사적이고 상호보증을 서려 뛰어다니는 것이다. 답은 가봐야 알지만 혹독한 날이 기다리고 있음을 불보 듯 하다는 것이다.. (이하 번역생략)

 

The EU is Out of Money. End of Story. And Neither

the Fed Nor the ECB Can "Print" To Save the Day

While various media outlets and “analysts” try to claim that the EU summit was somehow a success and that Europe’s issues are solved, the fact remains that Europe is out of money. And I mean TOTALLY out of money.

I realize this flies in the face of what 99% of analysts are claiming. But this is a proven fact. Of the various entities that could hold the EU together (the ECB, the IMF, Germany, and the two bailout funds: the EFSF and the ESM) none and I mean NONE of them actually have the capital to do it.

I am continually bombarded with emails from people saying, "well, if things get bad the Fed or ECB will just print and everything is solved."

This is beyond wrong. It is just groupthink based on the idea that the Fed has intervened ever since the Great Crisis began in 2008 (ZeroHedge recently ran an article showing that the Fed has intervened in over two thirds of the months since the Crisis began). However, even Fed intervention has a limit.

To whit, the Fed has now pulled back from any aggressive monetary policy for over a year. There has been no money printing. Instead, the Fed has re-arranged its portfolio to attempt to flatten the yield curve.

Why is the Fed doing this instead of simply engaging in more QE? The answer is because QE removes Treasuries from the banking system. We are facing a solvency Crisis and Treasuries are the senior most asset on US bank balance sheets.

When the Fed buys a Treasury from a US bank, it is providing liquidity (cash) to the bank to meet the bank's short term funding needs.

However, by removing the Treasury from the bank's balance sheet, the Fed is removing one of the banks senior most assets: the very asset against which the bank has leant or traded hundreds of billions and possibly even trillions of Dollars' worth of loans and trades.

Put another way, the Fed, by buying Treasuries is making insolvent banks even more insolvent. It is a short-term gain (liquidity) for a long-term disaster: banks need as much collateral as they can get their hands on right now. And with Treasuries rallying (raising the value of the banks' assets) any aggressive Fed program to take Treasuries out of the system would be a MAJOR step towards another solvency Crisis a la 2008.

The same pattern is playing out in Europe right now though on a much grander scale (its banking system is nearly four times as large as that of the US). While everyone continues to believe the ECB can save the day, the fact remains that the ECB has NOT bought a single sovereign bond in 14 weeks.

Why is this? The same reason that the Fed is not doing more QE: Europe is facing a solvency Crisis. Removing sovereign bonds from the market may be helpful from a purely liquidity standpoint (cash for trash) but the Crisis in Europe is not based on liquidity, it’s based on solvency. And EU banks need as much senior assets as they can get.

Everytime the ECB buys a sovereign bond it's removing much needed collateral from the EU banking system (a sovereign bond may be garbage, but it's usually less garbage than a EU mortgage loan or an EU corporate loan).

This in turn only increases the solvency issues in the EU banking system. And remember, bank runs are already underway in Spain, Italy, France, and Greece. So banks are desperate for capital and collateral.

THAT is why the ECB cannot and will not simply print to "save the day": doing so would NOT save the day but would in fact accelerate the EU banking Crisis.

So the Fed and the ECB WILL NOT be stepping in unless the entire system starts to go. This leaves the IMF which is a US-backed entity and thus cannot perform a large-scale EU bailout (it's an election year in the US and voters will not tolerate a US-lead bailout of Europe).

So all that is left to prop up Europe are the two mega-bailout funds (the EFSF and ESM) and Germany.

The EFSF's capital is already full committed and stretched to the limit in propping up Portugal and Ireland. So it's not an option anymore.

As for the ESM... well, it doesn't even exist yet: it has yet to be ratified by all the countries that need to vote on it. Moreover, Spain and Italy together are to account for 30% of the ESM's funding. So... these countries would be bailing themselves out!?!

Finally, both Finland and Netherlands are rejecting the idea that the ESM can be used to buy bank bonds. So the ESM, assuming it can even get ratified, will face major political pressure regarding how it spends its capital.

This leaves Germany as the one and only true EU prop. However, Germany is stretched to the limit. First off, the country is only ??328 billion away from reaching an official Debt to GDP of 90%: the level at which national solvency is called into question.

Moreover, that ??328 billion has already been spent via various EU props. Indeed, when we account for all the backdoor schemes Germany has engaged in to prop up the EU, Germany's REAL Debt to GDP is closer to 300%.

In Euro terms, Germany now has ??1 trillion in exposure to the EU via its various bailout mechanisms. That's EQUAL TO roughly 30% of German GDP.

If even a significant portion of that ??1 trillion goes bad (which it will as this money has been spent helping the PIIGS), Germany's financial system will take a MASSIVE hit.

This will guarantee Germany losing its AAA status, which in turn makes its funding costs much higher (see what happened to France in the last year: that country is now facing bank runs and its own solvency Crisis which you'll be hearing about in the coming weeks).

Angela Merkel is up for re-election next year. There is no way on earth she'll opt to let Germany get dragged down by the EU. She's even said she will not allow Eurobonds for "as long as [she] lives."

This is not empty rhetoric. This is fact. Germany has expressed its intentions dozens of times in the last month: NO Eurobonds and NO guarantee of EU banking deposits.

The reasons for this are simple: EITHER option renders Germany insolvent. It's already teetering on insolvency to begin with. But to allow Eurobonds or some kind of guarantee of the EU banking system to occur on top of the money Germany has already spent propping up the EU will take Germany down.

The German economy is already slowing. Most Germans are fed up with the Euro. Merkel would rather die than let her country become like Greece (which the creation of Eurobonds or EU deposit guarantees would most assuredly result in).

So Germany is tapped out as well. This leaves... NOBODY.

Again, Europe is out of money. End of story. This is the truth and investing based on the idea of some magical bailout occurring is like investing on Hank Paulson's Bazooka policy for Fannie and Freddie (three months later the markets imploded).

Smart investors are using this latest rally in the markets to prepare for what’s coming: an EU banking Crisis that will make 2008 look like a joke. On that note, I recently published a report showing investors how to prepare for this. It’s called How to Play the Collapse of the European Banking System and it explains exactly how the coming Crisis will unfold as well as which investments (both direct and backdoor) you can make to profit from it.

This report is 100% FREE. You can pick up a copy today at: http://www.gainspainscapital.com

Good Investing!

Graham Summers

PS. We also feature numerous other reports ALL devoted to helping you protect yourself, your portfolio, and your loved ones from the Second Round of the Great Crisis. Whether it’s a US Debt Default, runaway inflation, or even food shortages and bank holidays, our reports cover how to get through these situations safely and profitably.

And ALL of this is available for FREE under the OUR FREE REPORTS tab at:

http://www.gainspainscapital.com

번역출처; http://blog.daum.net/petercskim/7863670